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Long lines at gas pump unlikely, but Middle East crisis could disrupt oil supplies_我的网站

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A | WASHINGTON -- Fifty years after the 1973 Arab oil embargo, the current crisis in the Middle East has the potential to disrupt global oil supplies and push prices higher. But don't expect a repeat of the catastrophic price hikes and long lines at the gasoline pump, experts say.The Israel-Hamas war is “definitely not good news” for oil markets already stretched by cutbacks in oil production from Saudi Arabia and Russia and expected stronger demand from China, the head of the International Energy Agency said.Markets will remain volatile, and the conflict could push oil prices higher, "which is definitely bad news for inflation,” Fatih Birol, executive director of the Paris-based IEA, told The Associated Press. Developing countries that import oil and other fuels would be the most affected by higher prices, he said.International benchmark Brent crude traded above $91 a barrel on Thursday, up from $85 per barrel on Oct. 6, the day before Hamas attacked Israel, killing hundreds of civilians. Israel immediately launched airstrikes on Gaza, destroying entire neighborhoods and killing hundreds of Palestinian civilians in the days that have followed.Fluctuations since the attack pushed oil prices as high as $96. The price of oil depends on how much of it is getting used and how much is available. The latter is under threat because of the Hamas-Israel war, even though the Gaza Strip is not home to major crude production.One worry is that the fighting could lead to complications with Iran, home of some of the world’s largest oil reserves. Its crude production has been constrained by international sanctions, but oil is still flowing to China and other countries.“In order to get a sustained move (in prices), we really would need to see a supply disruption,” said Andrew Lipow, president at Lipow Oil Associates, a Houston-based consultant.Any damage to Iranian oil infrastructure from a military strike by Israel could send prices jumping globally. Even without that, a shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz that lies south of Iran could also shake the oil market because so much of the world’s supplies goes through the waterway.Until something like that happens, “the oil market is going to be like everyone else, monitoring the events in the Middle East,” Lipow said.One reason 1970s-style gas lines are unlikely: U.S. oil production is at an all-time high. The U.S. Energy Information Administration, an arm of the Energy Department, reported that American oil production in the first week of October hit 13.2 million barrels per day, passing the previous record set in 2020 by 100,000 barrels. Weekly domestic oil production has doubled from the first week in October 2012 to now.“The energy crisis of 1973 taught us many things, but in my mind, the most critical is that American energy strength is a tremendous source of security, prosperity and freedom around the world,'' said Mike Sommers, president and CEO of the American Petroleum Institute, the U.S. oil industry's top lobbying group.In a speech Wednesday marking the 50th anniversary of the 1973 oil embargo, Sommers said current U.S. production contrasts sharply with “America’s weakened position during the Arab oil embargo.'' He urged U.S. policymakers to heed what he called the lessons of 1973.“We cannot squander our strategic advantage and retreat on energy leadership,'' said Sommers, who has repeatedly criticized President Joe Biden's policies restricting restricting new oil leases as part of Biden's efforts to slow global climate change.“With an unstable world, war in Europe, war in the Middle East, and energy demand outstripping supply, energy security is on the line,'' Sommers said in a speech at the Hudson Institute, a Washington think tank.“American oil and gas are needed now more than ever,'' Sommers said. “Let’s take to heart the lessons we learned from 1973 and avoid sowing the seeds of the next energy crisis.'' For now, the crisis isn’t a repeat of 1973. Arab countries aren’t attacking Israel in unison, and OPEC+ nations have not moved to restrict supplies or boost prices beyond a few extra dollars.There are several wild cards in the energy market. One is the supply of Iranian oil. Eager to avoid a spike in gasoline prices and inflation, the U.S. has quietly tolerated some exports of Iranian oil to destinations such as China instead of going all in on sanctions aimed at Iran’s nuclear program. If Iran, which has warned Israel not to undertake a ground offensive, escalates the Gaza conflict — including a possible attack by Hezbollah militants in Lebanon supported by Iran — that might change the U.S. stance. “If the U.S. were then also to enforce the oil sanctions against Iran more strictly again, the oil market would tighten noticeably,” say commodities analysts at Commerzbank.Lawmakers from both parties have urged Biden to block Iranian oil sales, seeking to dry up one of the regime’s key sources of funding.Another wild card is how Saudi Arabia would respond if Iranian oil is restricted. Oil analysts say that while the Saudis may welcome recent oil price hikes, they don’t want a massive price spike that would fuel inflation, higher central bank interest rates and possible recession in oil-consuming countries that ultimately would limit or even kill off demand for oil. A third unknown is whether more oil will reach the market from Venezuela. The U.S. agreed Wednesday to temporarily suspend some sanctions on the country’s oil, gas and gold sectors after Venezuela’s government and a faction of its opposition formally agreed to work together on election reforms.Venezuelan production could increase in 2024. In the next six months, however, production could ramp up by some 200,000 barrels a day, a relative drop in the ocean, according to Sofia Guidi Di Sante, senior oil market analyst at Rystad Energy.Wyoming Sen. John Barrasso, the top Republican on the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, slammed the U.S. action as a “gimmick” that appeases a brutal regime in Venezuela. “Joe Biden’s energy policies put America last,'' Barrasso said, citing the Democratic president's decisions to kill the controversial Keystone XL oil pipeline and sell off significant portions of the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve, taking it to its lowest level since the 1980s. The Energy Department said Thursday it will seek offers to start refilling the oil reserve in December, with monthly solicitations expected through May 2024.“He eased sanctions on Iran, which funds terrorism across the Middle East. Now with Israel under attack, Biden is desperate for anything to mask the consequences of his reckless policies,'' Barrasso said. “America should never beg for oil from socialist dictators or terrorists.''The Treasury Department says it has targeted nearly 1,000 individuals and entities connected to terrorism and terrorist financing by the Iranian regime and its proxies, including Hamas, Hezbollah and other groups in the region. "We will continue to take action as appropriate to counter Iran’s destabilizing activity in the region and around the world,” Treasury said in a statement.____McHugh reported from Frankfurt, Germany. Choe reported from New York.。

众所周知，自澳大利亚人巴蒂在2022年宣布退出网坛以来，波兰姑娘斯瓦泰克在很长一段时间内都占据着世界第一的宝座。尽管她如今不再是世界第一，但却是00后选手中首位获得法网三连冠的球员。不仅如此，自2022年4月起，斯瓦泰克还获得了六个WTA1000赛事的冠军。在上周之前，还没有任何一位选手能够在草地、硬地、红土三种场地上都战胜过斯瓦泰克。

B | 从这些数据上来看，斯瓦泰克无疑是一位实力非常强劲的选手。

然而，既然存在着纪录，那么就会有人勇敢地站出来去打破这个纪录。那么，究竟是谁能够打破这项纪录呢？今天，就让拙文带你去看看吧。

C | 她就是拉脱维亚球员奥斯塔彭科。早在2017年，刚满20岁的奥斯塔彭科就杀进了法网决赛。决赛中，在先失一盘的不利情况下，她连扳两盘逆转战胜了罗马尼亚选手哈勒普，获得了大满贯冠军。这是奥斯塔彭科进入职业网坛以来，获得的首个大满贯冠军。而那个时候的斯瓦泰克，还在青少年赛场征战。

D | 彼时，两个人都没有想到，她们之间的竞争会是什么样的走向。

2019年，在WTA250伯明翰首轮，刚刚杀进了职业生涯首个巡回赛决赛的斯瓦泰克与奥斯塔彭科狭路相逢。大满贯冠军出身的奥斯塔彭科首盘就送出一枚鸭蛋，尽管斯瓦塔克在第二盘倾尽全力，却依然只拿到了两局。值得一提的是，这是她们首次交手，也是目前为止，她们唯一一次在草地网球赛场上交手。

两年之后，在WTA1000印第安维尔斯大师赛第四轮，已经是法网冠军的斯瓦泰克又遇到了奥斯塔彭科。

E | 其时，这位拉脱维亚选手的世界排名已经持续走低，所以赛前很多人认为斯瓦泰克理应获胜。然而，最终没有见七，没有抢七，没有决胜盘，依旧是两盘横扫，奥斯塔彭科依然笑到了最后。这是双方首次在硬地赛场上的较量，此后四年时间里，这两位选手三次在硬地赛场对阵，获胜者都是奥斯塔彭科。

上周在WTA500斯图加特公开赛上，在三盘鏖战战胜美国选手纳瓦罗之后，奥斯塔彭科终于和斯瓦泰克首次在红土赛场上相遇了。在这场比赛中，只获得过一个红土赛冠军的奥斯塔彭科面对五届大满贯冠军得主斯瓦泰克打得游刃有余，很快便拿下了首盘。尽管在第二盘斯瓦泰克还以颜色，把比赛拖进决胜盘。然而，决胜盘中，奥斯塔彭科很好地控制住了场上的局面，最终战胜了对手，职业生涯首次在红土赛场战胜斯瓦泰克的同时，成为了唯一一位在草地、硬地、红土都能够战胜对方的选手。